Although the CFTC and the US Securities and Exchange Commission outlined numerous measures that could result in further collaboration, the participants barely addressed prediction markets at the four-hour event. In many respects, the executives spent more time cracking jokes than discussing prediction market regulation.
Three executives appeared on a panel on how regulatory harmonisation efforts could unlock economic value for platforms across the industry:
Shayne Coplan of Polymarket
Terrence Duffy of CME Group
Tarek Mansour of Kalshi
Two others, JB Mackenzie of Robinhood Markets and Nick Lundgren of Crypto.com, appeared on another that addressed how the initiative could reduce costs for investors.
For the most part, however, stakeholders who looked for insight on regulatory changes for prediction markets came away thirsting for more.
Lighthearted moments on prediction market panel
Last month, the CME Group signed a groundbreaking partnership with FanDuel. Under the deal, the two will form a joint venture to create event contracts on certain derivatives including oil prices, index trades and economic indicators such as the national GDP. At Monday’s appearance, Duffy made a brief reference to the FanDuel joint venture in passing.
Duffy told the audience that he had spent little time inside a Las Vegas casino on a trip to Sin City over the weekend. Instead, he was preoccupied with his trades on Kalshi, a new prediction market.
It prompted Mansour to ask whether Duffy closed out of his trades by turning a profit. “You made money, I broke even,” Duffy responded with a laugh. “There’s a lot of fees over there, buddy.”
Coplan, 27, also brought the jokes to Monday’s roundtable. The Polymarket CEO playfully jousted with his elders in poking fun at their incumbent status. When several panellists chided Coplan on his age, he retorted, “If you can’t find me after this, contact my attorney.”
Little clarity on key regulation on Kalshi, Polymarket
However, the roundtable never broached CFTC Rule 40.11 that prohibits event contracts on matters such as terrorism, war, assassination and gaming. Polymarket, for instance, offers contracts on whether Hamas will release all captive Israeli hostages by 31 October.
The industry has sought clarity on the regulation, as a host of jurisdictions have filed litigation against prediction markets, claiming they run afoul of state laws.
Unsettled matters in CFTC regulation
The roundtable opened with a brief address by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, a rumoured candidate to be nominated by US President Donald Trump for the same position with the CFTC. Atkins remains a long shot because of a provision in the Securities Exchange Act that prohibits the chairman from leading another government agency at the same time. Atkins noted that the two agencies are focused on collaboration rather than a merger, which would require approval from the executive and legislative branches.
“Fanciful talk of reorganising the government risks distracting us from the monumental opportunity we have in front of us,” Atkins said in prepared remarks. “What matters is building a framework where our agencies coordinate seamlessly, reduce duplicative regulation and give markets the clarity they deserve.”
Mansour stressed the importance of self-certification for certain markets in the current environment. He emphasised that if Kalshi has to wait due to regulatory uncertainty, he contends impatient customers will simply go offshore.
CFTC interim chair Caroline Pham spoke near the start of the roundtable, but also largely ignored prediction markets. Pham plans to leave the agency when a new chair is confirmed. Brian Quintenz, the president’s previous nominee, saw his confirmation vote delayed twice this year. As a result, the White House has reportedly begun the process of vetting new candidates to lead the nation’s regulator on derivatives.
Dingnews.com 02/10/2025