Following a previous review in 2016 led by Gardiner-Hill’s predecessor Phil Smith in 2016, recommendations were implemented to the Flat WFA Scale in 2017.
As recommended by the European Pattern Committee (EPA), Gardinder-Hill was challenged in August 2023 to review that amended scale and recommend any further changes based on updated data analysis.
This has also been initiated to unify the WFA scales used across Europe – producing both imperial and metric versions of the agreed scale.
In his analysis of the scale, Gardiner-Hill highlighted samples of the analysis which proved key to the project, while explaining the process undertaken, the conclusions drawn and the final recommendations.
Within the data, the BHA Head of Handicapping assessed the performance of three-year-old horses in flat handicaps by distance across the UK, Ireland and Germany.
Moreover, the data analysed the performance of three-year-old horses in flat pattern and listed races across the UK, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy.
Having read into the analysis, Gardiner-Hill explained: “It is clear to see that the 2017 changes have had minimal impact on the overperformance of 3yos in British handicaps, particularly those at 13f+, whilst they also continue to regularly overperform in 10f-12f all age handicaps.
“Whilst they also overperform at various points at 10f+ in Ireland, the issue is not nearly as marked as it is in Britain whilst in Germany there is clear 3yo overperformance in 12f+ handicaps run between the middle of August through to the middle of October.
“Interestingly, however, the data from Pattern and Listed races run in Great Britain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy during the same period tells a slightly different story.
“The metrics at all distance categories up to 13.49f are about as close to ideal as you are going to get but once again highlight 3yo overperformance in races run in the extended distance category (13.5f+). I therefore decided the only area which needed ‘tweaking’ and bringing more into line this time around was the extended distance races.
“Given the above, I then had to make the decision as to whether those amendments should be based on the data supplied by domestic handicaps or that by Pattern and Listed races in the five major racing jurisdictions across Europe.”
These results encouraged Gardiner-Hill to suggest that adjustments based on handicap form in the UK could potentially be of a size that had an impact on the balance of handicaps in other countries, stating that “what would work in Britain may well not work elsewhere”.
With the EPA hoping to unify scales across Europe, Gardiner-Hill also explained that adjustments based on domestic handicap form could potentially swing the advantage in favour of the older horses in Pattern and Listed races, rather than bringing about greater parity.
As a result of these results, Gardiner-Hill suggested that to create greater parity in handicaps, domestic handicappers will not need to totally rely on the WFA scale. Instead, domestic handicappers can use their own methodology to help ‘balance the situation’.
Finally, Gardiner-Hill presented his amended WFA scale that has been agreed upon by the EPA and is set for implementation in 2025.
Several changes have been made to the previously amended scale, with Gardiner-Hill commenting that “as expected, minor compromises had to be made through the process as those countries represented had their say on both the size of the changes and the timing of them”.
Dingnews.com 08/01/2025